Find a personalised home loan solution that works for you.
Each week, we break down the most important finance, lending, and property updates and explain what they actually mean for you.
Rather than reporting headlines, this page focuses on impact and action: how changes from the RBA, lenders, and regulators may affect home buyers, investors, SMSF trustees, and business owners.
Our goal is simple - to help you make informed decisions with clarity and confidence.
This information is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice.
Week 1 — 29 December 2025 - 04 January 2026
What Happened This Week
Recent data showed Australia’s CPI inflation dipped, reflecting some relief in price pressures. Annual inflation dropped from 3.8% to 3.4%, but economists warn this relief may be temporary.
Why It Matters
Inflation data influence the RBA’s monetary decisions. While a dip is good news, persistent price pressures in services and housing mean the RBA may still sit tight.
Who It Affects
Borrowers with variable rates won’t feel immediate relief
Property investors pricing cash flows must account for higher service costs
Business lenders watching operating costs
Broker Insight
This type of inflation result keeps the RBA on hold rather than moving to cuts or hikes. Markets are pricing in a cautious outlook through early 2026.
What You Should Do Next
Review cash flow plans in light of ongoing cost pressures
Consider locking rates where it makes sense
Talk to a broker about your refinancing windows
Week 2 — 05 - 11 January 2026
What Happened This Week
The Reserve Bank’s Deputy Governor said that near-term interest rate cuts are unlikely - despite inflation easing modestly - because inflation remains above target and the RBA wants sustained evidence before easing monetary policy.
Why It Matters
Fixed and variable borrowing costs have been a key focus for borrowers, and many are watching for rate relief. However, the RBA’s current stance suggests no imminent rate cuts, meaning borrowing costs may stay higher for longer.
Who It Affects
Home buyers and investors: No quick drop in mortgage costs yet
Refinancers: Plans to refinance to lower rates might need patience
Business and SMSF borrowers: Cost of funds remains steady
Broker Insight
Even if headline inflation eases, central banks focus on underlying inflation and future outlook. The RBA is cautious, and its priority remains price stability rather than short-term borrower relief.
What You Should Do Next
Lock in competitive fixed rates if your strategy suits
Review borrowing strategies with your broker - especially for SMSF and business loans
Don’t chase rates; align choices to financial goals
Week 3 — 12 – 18 January 2026
What Happened This Week
This week, the lending and economic landscape continued to evolve, with lenders and economists expressing a cautious outlook on interest rates amidst changing competition and lending dynamics. Fixed home loan rates from several major lenders have risen as markets anticipate a possible cash rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in early February. For instance, both the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Macquarie Bank have raised their fixed-rate offers ahead of the upcoming RBA decision. Analysts now see a greater likelihood of a rate hike during the RBA's meeting on February 3.
Additionally, we are seeing shifts in lending policies across the market. ANZ has tightened its lending criteria for companies and trust structures, lowering maximum loan-to-value (LVR) ratios and adjusting eligibility requirements for new trust and company home loans. This move reflects a broader trend among banks to reassess risks associated with non-standard borrower structures.
Non-bank lenders are experiencing strong growth in loan originations through brokers, with these originations accounting for approximately 75% of loan settlements. This trend is driven by brokers increasingly turning to alternative lenders to help borrowers with tighter deposit or credit profiles.
Moreover, the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) lending market is expanding. Renown Lending has significantly increased its national funding pool to support cash flow, asset-backed loans, and short-term property loans across multiple states, highlighting the rising demand for non-bank business lending solutions.
Why It Matters
Interest Rate Expectations: The recent movement in fixed loan pricing ahead of the RBA meeting indicates that lenders are preparing for potentially higher cash rates. Borrowers who plan to fix their rates should be aware that pricing is already changing, which can impact refinancing decisions, loan strategies, and budgeting for repayments.
Trust and Company Structures: Stricter policies regarding loans through trust and company structures by major banks mean that investors using these arrangements may need to reevaluate their borrowing strategies or consider alternative lenders.
Broker Market Dynamics: Brokers play a crucial role in facilitating new settlements. Consequently, competitive alternatives to major banks are becoming increasingly vital, particularly for borrowers facing deposit or credit constraints.
SME Lending: The growth of non-bank lending options to support small and medium enterprises reflects a shift toward more flexible funding sources outside traditional banking channels. This trend could benefit business borrowers seeking customised financing solutions.
Who It Affects
Home buyers: especially those considering fixed rate options
Property investors: with trust or company structures
Refinancers: evaluating when and how to refinance
SMSF property borrowers: relying on alternative lending options
Business owners: looking for SME funding and cashflow finance
Brokers: advising clients on lender panel options and strategy
Broker Insight
With markets now eyeing the RBA’s February meeting closely, lenders are pre-emptively adjusting pricing and tightening certain credit policies. This environment emphasises the importance of proactive planning. Borrowers considering locking in fixed rates should weigh the timing of these moves against their personal cash flow and risk tolerance. Likewise, investors using trusts or company structures need to understand new eligibility requirements and engage with brokers early to explore all available channels-including non-bank lenders where appropriate. Competitive lender panels and broker expertise continue to be valuable in navigating these nuanced policy shifts.
What You Should Do Next
Review cash flow plans in light of ongoing cost pressures
Explore non-bank options
Talk to a broker about your refinancing windows
Week 4 — 19 – 25 January 2026
What Happened This Week
This week, Australia’s home loan market experienced a sharp shift as more than 50 lenders increased variable and fixed home loan rates, signaling growing confidence that interest rates may rise again soon. The widespread repricing comes as financial markets increasingly factor in the possibility of a 25 basis point cash rate increase at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting.
Unlike previous cycles where only fixed rates moved first, this round of changes has seen variable rates lifted across a broad range of lenders, including major banks, second-tier lenders and non-banks. In many cases, these increases were applied outside of any official RBA decision, reflecting higher wholesale funding costs and heightened risk pricing by lenders.
At the same time, the number of fixed-rate home loan options below 5% has fallen sharply, reducing choice for borrowers seeking repayment certainty. Several lenders have also adjusted credit appetite, tightened serviceability buffers, or repriced investor and interest-only products more aggressively than owner-occupied loans.
Together, these changes point to lenders preparing balance sheets for a potentially higher-rate environment, regardless of whether the RBA ultimately moves in February.
Why It Matters
Variable Rate Pressure:
Borrowers on variable rates are now feeling increases without any official cash rate change, meaning repayments can rise even before the RBA acts.
RBA Expectations:
The scale and speed of repricing across more than 50 lenders suggests markets are no longer neutral on rates. Lenders are acting early to protect margins ahead of a possible policy shift.
Refinancing Windows Narrowing:
As variable and fixed rates both trend higher, borrowers considering refinancing may find fewer competitive options if they delay.
Lender Risk Management:
The repricing highlights lenders becoming more selective, particularly for investors, higher-LVR loans and complex borrower profiles.
Who It Affects
Variable-rate home loan borrowers
Borrowers nearing the end of fixed-rate periods
Refinancers comparing lender options
Property investors facing higher holding costs
First-home buyers assessing borrowing capacity
Brokers supporting clients through rate volatility
Broker Insight
This week’s broad-based variable rate increases are a clear signal that lenders are no longer waiting for the RBA to act. Funding costs, global uncertainty and inflation risk are all being priced in ahead of time. For borrowers, this reinforces the importance of reviewing loan structures regularly rather than reacting after rates move.
With competition tightening and lender policies diverging, broker guidance is critical. Some lenders remain competitive for certain borrower profiles, while others are pulling back quietly. Understanding where flexibility still exists - particularly among non-bank lenders - can make a meaningful difference in repayment outcomes and long-term strategy.
What You Should Do Next
Review your current variable rate and repayment impact
Assess whether refinancing still delivers a net benefit
Explore fixed, split or alternative lending options
Speak with a broker before further rate changes occur
Week 5 — 26 January – 01 February 2026
What Happened This Week
More than one-third of Australian homeowners are now experiencing mortgage stress, according to recent industry and market reports. Rising living costs, higher interest repayments, and reduced household buffers are placing sustained pressure on borrowers as expectations of further interest rate tightening remain.
While many borrowers are still meeting their repayments, a growing number are cutting back on essentials, dipping into savings, or actively seeking relief options such as refinancing or loan restructuring.
Why It Matters
Mortgage stress at this level signals broader financial strain across the economy. Even borrowers who are not missing repayments are becoming increasingly vulnerable to future rate rises or unexpected expenses.
This environment increases the risk of:
Missed repayments
Forced property sales
Reduced borrowing capacity
Slower housing market activity
It also places greater importance on proactive loan management rather than a “set and forget” approach.
Who It Affects
This trend is impacting a wide range of borrowers, including:
Homeowners on variable-rate loans
Borrowers who purchased at higher property prices over the past few years
Households with reduced savings buffers
Investors facing higher holding costs and tighter rental yields
First home buyers with limited financial flexibility
Even borrowers who are currently comfortable may be affected if rates rise further.
Broker Insight
Many borrowers are paying significantly more than they need to. In a competitive lending market, better options may be available — including lower rates, alternative lenders, or loan structures better suited to current conditions.
Lenders are also more open to discussions around hardship support, refinancing, and loan reviews before repayments become unmanageable. Acting early creates more options and stronger outcomes.
What You Should Do Next
If you have a home loan or investment loan, now is a smart time to:
Review your current interest rate and loan structure
Check whether refinancing could reduce repayments or improve cash flow
Ensure your loan still suits your financial goals
Stress-test your repayments against potential future rate increases
A proactive loan review can help you stay ahead of rising costs and protect your financial position.
03 February 2026
What Happened This Week
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points, raising the cash rate from 3.60% to 3.85% at its first monetary policy meeting of 2026. This marks the first rate increase in over two years, reversing part of the easing cycle that dominated 2025 as inflation pressures have resurfaced.
Why It Matters
Higher borrowing costs for households
The rate rise will mean higher borrowing costs for mortgage holders, especially those on variable rates. For example, the typical Australian borrower with a $500,000 home loan could see monthly repayments increase by around $79, while a $1 million mortgage could add around $158 more per month — once banks pass on the move.
Inflation remains above target
The decision reflects the RBA’s response to inflation remaining stubbornly above its 2–3% target, with the central bank signaling ongoing economic resilience but persistent price pressures.
Markets had largely priced in a hike
Major banks and markets had widely expected the rate rise as inflation data surprised to the upside in late 2025, ending speculation of further cuts early in 2026.
Who It Affects
Homeowners with variable rate loans — will likely see the fastest impact on monthly payments.
Prospective home buyers — may face reduced borrowing capacity and higher serviceability costs.
Investors and property markets — could experience slower price growth as financing costs increase.
Business and consumer sentiment — may soften if tighter financial conditions persist.
Broker Insight
This decision highlights the importance of proactive loan management in a shifting monetary policy environment. Variable rate holders may see repayments increasing over the coming months, and brokers should prepare to support clients with:
Refinancing reviews
Rate comparisons
Loan structure optimisation
Borrowing capacity reassessments
With inflation still above target and economic data evolving, there remains the possibility of further tightening this year if price pressures persist.
What You Should Do Next
Check your loan settings
If you have a home loan, investment property loan, or line of credit, now is an ideal time to review your interest rate, loan features, and repayment structure.
Speak with your broker
A rate rise can change a borrower’s capacity and cash flow position — professional guidance can help you plan ahead rather than react later.
Plan for serviceability
Use up-to-date repayment stress tests to ensure your finances remain comfortable, even if rates move higher.
Week 6 — 02 – 08 February 2026
What Happened This Week
Housing demand has started the year strongly, with buyer enquiries and applications remaining resilient despite tighter credit conditions and cautious lender behavior. While serviceability tests have become tougher, underlying demand, particularly from investors and first-home buyers, remains robust.
Major banks lift mortgage rates in response to RBA policy shifts
Australia’s four big banks CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ have increased variable home loan rates by ~25 basis points following the RBA’s recent interest rate rise, pushing borrowing costs higher for both new and existing mortgage holders.
RBA interest rate trajectory draws attention
After the RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85%, commentators are watching for further tightening to tackle elevated inflation levels. This shift signifies a potential reversal in the previously easing rate environment, giving lenders reason to price accordingly.
Why It Matters
Borrowers are paying more: The pass-through of official rate moves into home loans means higher monthly repayments for new and existing borrowers, particularly those on variable rates.
Lending standards are tightening: Even with strong demand, lenders are increasingly cautious in serviceability assessments, affecting borrowing power and loan approvals.
Investor and owner-occupier appetites differ: Investor activity - a major driver of overall housing finance remains strong. At the same time, some owner-occupiers are more sensitive to rate changes and tighter credit checks.
These dynamics combine to create a market where demand persists but access to finance is more selective and costlier.
Who It Affects
1. Current mortgage holders
Rising variable rates translate to higher repayments, squeezing household budgets, especially for those with limited cash buffers.
2. New home buyers
Tighter lending conditions and serviceability tests mean some buyers may be approved for smaller loans than expected, or face more scrutiny over income and expenses.
3. Property investors
With lenders still competing for investor dollars and brokers reporting strong investor interest, this cohort continues to shape lending volumes, but may face stricter terms if regulators push back on high-geared borrowing.
Broker Insight
"We’re seeing more borrowers reassess their affordability targets as lenders tighten credit conditions. But demand, especially from investors and those refinancing, remains strong. Savvy structuring and early engagement are key in this environment".
What You Should Do Next
If you have a home loan or investment loan, now is a smart time to:
Review your current interest rate and loan structure
Check whether refinancing could reduce repayments or improve cash flow
Ensure your loan still suits your financial goals
Stress-test your repayments against potential future rate increases
A proactive loan review can help you stay ahead of rising costs and protect your financial position.
Week 7 — 09 – 15 February 2026
What Happened This Week
Major banks passed on the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase, lifting mortgage repayments and tightening household budgets. Higher interest rates are also reducing borrowing capacity, affecting buyer power even among serious purchasers.
Cost-of-living pressures persist as inflation remains above target and tighter credit assessments influence borrowing behaviour.
Despite these pressures, auction clearance rates remain strong, averaging about 73.7% across combined capitals. Sydney recorded particularly strong results (approaching 80%), while Adelaide continued to deliver solid outcomes, demonstrating resilience even as loan costs rise.
Property values are showing mixed signals. While tighter monetary conditions may slow momentum, sustained buyer demand and strong clearance rates suggest stability rather than sharp declines. Smaller capital cities continue to provide price support.
Political Shift: Angus Taylor’s Leadership & Implications for Property
Angus Taylor has become Leader of the Opposition, replacing Sussan Ley after a party leadership spill. Taylor has emphasised cost-of-living relief, housing affordability, and economic reform as priorities.
Restoring home ownership as a national priority, particularly for younger Australians.
Reducing regulatory barriers and streamlining development approvals to improve housing supply.
Opposing policy changes viewed as negative to property investors, including potential tax increases.
Why It Matters
Rising interest rates are increasing repayments and reducing borrowing capacity.
Strong auction clearance rates indicate ongoing demand despite higher costs.
A housing-focused policy direction from the new Opposition leadership may influence investor confidence and long-term market stability.
Who It Affects
Home Buyers: Higher rates and tighter credit tests impact borrowing capacity and repayments.
Property Investors: Policy direction may influence long-term confidence and investment strategy.
Sellers: Strong activity continues, but pricing must reflect affordability constraints.
Mortgage Brokers & Lenders: Guidance on rates, serviceability, and lender options remains essential.
Broker Insight
Buyer activity remains strong in markets with high clearance rates despite rising repayments.
Lending conditions are diverging: first-home buyers face tighter constraints, while cash-ready investors remain less affected.
Greater political clarity and housing supply focus could support investor confidence over the next 12–18 months.
What You Should Do Next
Buyers: Review borrowing capacity, consider fixed-rate options, and consult a broker for competitive deals.
Sellers: Monitor auction trends and price strategically to attract buyers in a rate-sensitive market.
Investors: Track Taylor’s housing policy announcements and target markets with strong clearance rates.
Week 8 — 16 – 22 February 2026
What Happened This Week
Borrowing capacity surprises are rising across the market
More buyers are discovering their borrowing power is lower than expected when seeking pre-approval. Lenders continue applying conservative serviceability buffers and detailed expense verification, which can significantly reduce maximum loan amounts.
Living expense benchmarks and credit scrutiny remain strict
Banks are closely reviewing spending patterns, discretionary expenses, and existing debts. Even unused credit card limits and buy-now-pay-later facilities are impacting borrowing capacity.
Lender policy differences create vastly different outcomes
Borrowing limits can vary widely between lenders due to how income types, rental income, bonuses, overtime, and self-employed earnings are assessed.
Small debts have big impacts
Car loans, personal loans, HELP/HECS debt, and credit cards are increasingly affecting borrowing power and approval outcomes.
Why It Matters
Borrowing power may be 15–25% lower than buyers expect.
Stricter expense verification reduces maximum loan eligibility.
Lender policy differences mean choosing the right lender is critical.
Buyers relying on outdated borrowing estimates risk missing opportunities.
Who It Affects
First-home buyers
May need to adjust expectations, budgets, or purchase locations.
Upgraders
Higher existing debt levels and family expenses can reduce borrowing capacity.
Property investors
Portfolio expansion may require strategic structuring and lender selection.
Self-employed borrowers
Income assessment methods can significantly influence approval outcomes.
Broker Insight
Borrowing power is no longer a simple calculator figure.
We’re seeing:
Buyers pre-approved for less than expected
Major differences between lender servicing models
Credit card limits and personal debt-reducing capacity
Strategic loan structuring is becoming essential
Preparation and lender strategy now matter more than ever.
What You Should Do Next
Get pre-approved before property shopping to understand your true budget
Reduce credit card limits and personal debt to improve borrowing power
Avoid taking new finance (personal and car loans, credit cards, and BNPL) before applying
Work with a broker to compare lender policies and maximise capacity
Review your expenses - spending patterns now affect approvals
Week 9 — 23 February – 01 March 2026
What Happened This Week
Negative Gearing Reform Back in Focus
The federal government is now actively exploring changes to negative gearing ahead of the May federal budget. Treasury is reportedly modelling a policy that could limit negative gearing to a maximum of two investment properties and possibly combine this with changes to the capital gains tax (CGT) discount for property investors. No final decision has been made, but both issues are very much on the table.
Auction Clearance Rates & Buyer Demand
Recent auction data and reports indicate more mixed results compared to late 2025. While clearance rates remain relatively strong in many markets, anecdotal evidence suggests that some auctions are experiencing lower outcomes, with buyers becoming more hesitant or transactions stalling. This shift may be influenced by borrowers considering potential interest rate increases and changes in policy.
Interest Rate Expectations Impacting Demand
Major lenders have lifted fixed mortgage rates, potentially reflecting expectations of further RBA cash rate increases. This dynamic tends to pull some buyers out of auctions and shift activity toward private treaty sales.
Compliance & Macroprudential Lending Controls
Regulatory tightening, which includes implementing higher serviceability buffers, limits on specific types of interest-only lending, and checks on investor loans, continues to reduce credit availability for certain borrowers, especially higher-risk investors. This directly affects who can obtain loans and the amounts they can secure.
Property Prices Holding Up
Property prices continue to rise in many areas, especially in smaller capital cities and regions, despite pressure on rates. In contrast, Sydney and Melbourne show relatively flat month-to-month gains compared to the explosive growth of recent years.
Why It Matters
Tax Policy Could Reshape Investment Demand Limiting negative gearing and/or reducing the CGT discount would change the incentives for property investors. This could remove some speculative pressure on market demand, potentially slowing capital growth especially if implemented without grandfathering provisions.
Auction Outcomes Signal Confidence Shift
Auction clearance rates serve as a real-time indicator of demand. When these rates soften or remain static despite limited inventory, it suggests that buyers are becoming more cautious due to factors like rate expectations, compliance issues, or policy risks.
Lenders & Brokers Adjusting to Tight Conditions
Banks tightening lending conditions and increasing serviceability requirements mean less discretionary borrowing capacity, especially for high-LVR or investor loans. This can reduce competition in some segments of the market.
Who It Affects
First-Home Buyers
High interest rates + tighter lending criteria remain a barrier.
Negative gearing reform could, in theory, reduce investor activity and make it slightly easier to compete, though price effects would be gradual.
Buyers at Auction
Auction clearance rates are still relatively healthy, but buyers are more selective, and conditional buyers may win negotiating leverage if vendor confidence softens.
Investors
Potential negative gearing caps and CGT changes loom largest here. Owners with multiple properties may need to reassess portfolios if reforms are enacted.
Broker Insight
Negative Gearing & CGT Discussions:
Initial modelling indicates that any cap may include complex grandfathering rules, which accountants will need to clarify for investors.
Auction Strategy:
If clearance rates dip - even seasonally - brokers can assist clients to position offers outside the auction (pre-auction offers) or extend conditional periods to mitigate pricing risk.
Compliance & Servicing:
Serviceability buffers and macroprudential checks remain high. Brokers should prepare clients in advance with documentation and manage expectations about borrowing capacity.
What You Should Do Next
For Buyers
Stay updated on developments regarding negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Even minor announcements or leaks can quickly change market sentiment.
Check auction trends in your target suburbs weekly. A slight decline in auction performance could indicate an increase in your negotiating power.
For Investors
Run scenario analysis for your portfolio under possible tax reform outcomes (e.g., cap at 2 negatively geared properties).
Consider transition planning if reforms pass, like restructuring loans or holding periods.
Week 10 — 02 – 08 March 2026
What Happened This Week
The Australian share market had a rough week, with the S&P/ASX 200 falling about 4%, wiping billions off market value as global investors reacted to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.
This volatility is also impacting superannuation balances, as many funds are heavily invested in equities.
Auction activity increased as the autumn selling season ramped up.
Latest reported results show:
National clearance rate: around 57–65%
Sydney: around 60–65%
Melbourne: around 65–70%
Adelaide and Brisbane remain stronger.
A weekend report showed over 500 auctions with a clearance rate of about 57%, indicating demand remains present but buyers are becoming more selective.
Overall, the market is shifting toward a more balanced environment, rather than the aggressive bidding seen in previous cycles.
Inflation Results
Australia’s latest inflation data still shows inflation above the RBA’s target range, keeping pressure on interest rate policy.
Key drivers:
Housing costs
Energy prices
Insurance and services
Inflation remaining sticky means rate cuts are unlikely in the short term.
Interest Rate Prediction
Markets are now watching the next Reserve Bank meeting closely.
Current expectations:
March meeting: small chance of a rate hike
May meeting: considered the more likely timing if inflation stays high
Economists expect the RBA to wait for additional inflation and wage data before making the next move.
Property Market Prediction
Property market is currently showing a two-speed pattern:
Stronger markets in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth
Slower growth in Sydney and Melbourne
Entry-level housing remains highly competitive due to population growth, rental shortages, and limited supply.
Overall forecasts suggest modest price growth in 2026, rather than a rapid boom or crash.
Why It Matters
Several forces are shaping the market right now:
Global uncertainty is creating volatility in share markets and superannuation.
Inflation pressures are delaying interest rate cuts.
Housing supply shortages continue supporting property prices.
This combination means the property market is likely to remain resilient but cautious.
Who It Affects
First-home buyers
Competition remains strongest in entry-level properties, especially in affordable suburbs.
Property investors
Many investors are exploring real assets like property as a hedge against share market volatility.
Homeowners
Borrowers should remain aware that interest rates may stay higher for longer.
SMSF Investors
Some SMSF trustees are reviewing their portfolios as share market volatility impacts super balances, though there is no evidence of widespread panic buying of property yet.
Broker Insight
The current market behaviour can be described as:
“Selective confidence, not panic.”
Buyers are active where:
Properties are affordable
Rental yields are strong
Population growth is high
However, uncertainty around interest rates is making buyers more cautious and price-sensitive.
What You Should Do Next
Buyers:
Secure pre-approval early as lending policies may tighten
Focus on suburbs with strong population growth
Investors:
Watch rental markets where yields remain strong
Review borrowing capacity before rates potentially rise again
Homeowners:
Review loan structures and refinancing options
Consider fixing part of your loan if rate risk increases